Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights: crowd vs house
NHL · Tue Oct 20, 10:40 PM ET · House take 4.7%
Crowd vs House split
House take (median book margin): 4.7%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.
| Side | CROWD | HOUSE fair | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 48.5% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 49.6% no-vig median | -1.1 pts |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 51.5% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 50.4% no-vig median | +1.1 pts |
Who's cheaper: Tampa Bay Lightning to win
House no-vig fair: 49.6%. Cheapest after vig & fees: CROWDPolymarket by 0.3¢ per $1 payout vs HOUSECaesars.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| CROWDPolymarket open | 49.0¢ + 1.25¢ fee | 50.2¢ -101 |
| HOUSECaesars | -102 (1.98) | 50.5¢ -102 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 49¢ + 1.75¢ fee | 50.7¢ -103 |
Who's cheaper: Vegas Golden Knights to win
House no-vig fair: 50.4%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSEFanatics by 0.9¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDPolymarket.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSEFanatics | -110 (1.91) | 52.4¢ -110 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 52.0¢ + 1.25¢ fee | 53.2¢ -114 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 52¢ + 1.75¢ fee | 53.7¢ -116 |
House moneylines
| Book | Lightning | Knights | House take |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetMGM | -110 | -110 | 4.7% |
| HOUSEBetRivers | -106 | -114 | 4.7% |
| HOUSECaesars | -102 | -115 | 4.0% |
| HOUSEDraftKings | -105 | -115 | 4.8% |
| HOUSEFanDuel | -110 | -110 | 4.7% |
| HOUSEFanatics | -110 | -110 | 4.7% |
All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.